Multi-day forecasts of solar wind conditions at L1
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Geoeffectiveness of Solar
Events Multi-day forecasts of solar wind conditions at L1 |
The Bastille Day Event
Quicktime movie [this is a big file:12 MB]
The solar event of July 14, 2000, one of the largest during this solar activity cycle, caused major space weather disruptions to technological systems. The Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind model predicted the arrival of a large, geoeffective interplanetary shock at 1500 UT, July 15th, within one hour of the actual shock arrival at L1. We have simulated solar wind conditions during July 10-18, 2000, modeling the effects of ten solar events using associated optical, X-ray, and solar Type-II metric radio observations. Below, you can view movies of the ecliptic-plane interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and dynamic pressure.
Model Inputs
List of events used in the simulation.
Source surface maps (ps | pdf) used to establish the background solar wind conditions.
Simulation Results
IMF movie [1.8 MB] Interplanetary magnetic field, in the ecliptic plane, from 0.1 to 2.0 AU, as simulated by the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry solar wind model Version 2 (HAF V.2). Field lines directed toward the sun are shown in blue, and those directed away from the sun are shown in red. The Earth’s position is marked by the black dot at 1 AU. The x-axis (heliolongitude=0° ) corresponds to the intersection of the solar equatorial plane and the ecliptic plane (inclined at ~7° ). This plot shows the predicted position at 1500 UT on July 15, 2000 of the interplanetary shock resulting from the massive solar event at ~1020 UT on July 14. Note the deformation of the shock by the pre-existing solar wind structures and sector boundaries. BIG version of IMF movie [3.9 MB].
Dynamic Pressure movie [2.9
MB] Solar wind dynamic pressure index computed by the HAF V.2 model for the scenario
shown above. This index is equal to the dynamic pressure normalized to 1 AU. The HAF V.2
model predicted the interplanetary shock arrival at ~1500 UT on July 15th, within 40
minutes of the actual time of arrival. A sudden increase in solar wind dynamic pressure
was observed by multiple spacecraft at about 1420 UT on July 15th, marking the beginning
of a massive geomagnetic storm.
BIG version of DP movie [7 MB]
Quicktime movie [12 MB].
Full coverage of this event can be found at the ISTP web site at NASA/GSFC: http://www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov/istp/events/2000july14/
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Exploration Physics International, Inc. |
